Abstract: To assess the impacts of climate change on the potential suitable habitats of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in the southern Minshan Mountains, this study simulated the spatiotemporal patterns, vertical distribution characteristics, and driving mechanisms of giant panda habitats under current climate conditions (1970–2000) and four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the 2050s (2041–2060), 2070s (2061–2080), and 2090s (2081–2100) using the MaxEnt model based on 30 giant panda occurrence points. The results show that: (1) Precipitation seasonality (bio15, 18.1%), slope (15.5%), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17, 11.2%), and elevation (11.1%) were the dominant environmental factors affecting giant panda habitats. Under current climate conditions, habitat suitability decreased with increasing bio15 and increased with increasing bio17, peaking at a slope of 12° and an elevation of 2500 m. (2) The current areas of high-, medium-, and low-suitability habitats were 51400.34 hm², 102505.27 hm², and 148833.72 hm², with core elevation ranges of 1339～3686 m, 1274～3785 m, and 1199～4072 m, respectively, and the overall habitat was fragmented. (3) Under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6, high-suitability habitat expanded slightly by 11.84% and 2.20% in the 2050s and 2070s, accompanied by the smallest increases in key climatic variables and the mildest climate fluctuations among all scenarios. Future habitats overall tended to shrink, and habitat reduction was significantly negatively correlated with the increases in bio15 and bio17 (P<0.01), which together explained more than 80% of the variation in habitat area. (4) The vertical distribution of suitable habitats contracted toward middle-to-high elevations with narrowed ranges, rather than shifting monotonically upward with rising emission levels; contraction was most drastic under RCP4.5 and relatively mild under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. (5) The Tudiling Corridor retained more than 60% of its suitable habitat under all scenarios, with stable core elevation and favorable connectivity. This study clarifies the range, variation characteristics, and drivers of giant panda habitats in the southern Minshan Mountains under climate change, and provides a scientific basis for regional habitat conservation and climate-adaptive management of giant pandas.