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基于MaxEnt模拟樟科无根藤属物种的潜在适生区

Prediction of potential distribution area of Cassytha (Lauraceae) based on MaxEnt model

  • 摘要: 樟科无根藤属物种绝大多数局限分布于澳大利亚,少数物种产于非洲,然而其中的一种却呈泛热带分布于世界各地。聚焦这一广布种(Cassytha filiformis)与狭域物种进行潜在适生区的模拟,分析它们形成适生区的环境差异,解析樟科无根藤属植物多样性分布格局及其成因,旨在为其所处森林多样性保护与生态环境稳定提供基础资料。结果表明,基于环境变量的MaxEnt模型训练集和测试集受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)均大于0.9,表明无根藤属物种的潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,可信度好。基于环境变量贡献率和刀切法的结果表明,温度、降水和土壤是限制无根藤属物种分布的主要环境因素,其中狭域种的分布受土壤因子影响较大,广布种无根藤的分布几乎不受土壤因子限制,并且影响狭域特有种的地理分布格局的环境因子都有适宜阈值但阈值范围较小,只有主导无根藤分布的环境因子适宜阈值范围最大。初步推测无根藤广泛分布而其余物种狭域分布的原因有以下四点:(1)无根藤环境适应性强,影响无根藤分布的主导因子阈值范围大;(2)无根藤分布不受土壤因子限制;(3)无根藤种子能完成长距离扩散;(4)无根藤寄主范围广。

     

    Abstract: Most species of the genus Cassytha are confined in Australia, and a few species are found in Africa. However, Cassytha filiformis L. is a particular species is distributed all over the world in a pan-tropical manner. The purpose of this study is to simulate the potential suitable areas of this widely distributed species (C. filiformis) and narrow-range species, analyze the environmental differences of their suitable areas, and analyze the distribution pattern of the genus Cassytha diversity and the underlying causes, in order to provide basic information for the protection of forest diversity and the stability of ecological environment. The results showed that, based on environmental variables, the MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in predicting the potential distribution areas of the genus Cassytha. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC value) was greater than 0.9 for both the training and test sets, indicating a good confidence in the predictions. Based on the contribution rate of environmental variables and the Jackknife method, the results showed that precipitation, temperature, and soil were the main factors limiting the distribution of the genus Cassytha species. The distribution of most narrow species were greatly affected by soil conditions, while the distribution of C. filiformis was not significantly limited by soil factors. Overall, the environmental factors affected the geographical distribution of the genus Cassytha species had suitable thresholds and narrow ranges, except for C. filiformis, which had the largest range of thresholds. It is currently tentatively hypothesized that the wide distribution of C. filiformis and the narrow distribution of the other species can be attributed to four reasons. Firstly, C. filiformis has strong environmental adaptability, and can tolerate a wide range of dominant factors that influence its distribution. Secondly, the distribution of this species is not limited by soil factors. Thirdly, the seeds of the C. filiformis can diffuse over a long distance. Lastly, this species has the ability to utilize a wide variety of hosts for its survival and reproduction.

     

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