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林璐, 赵若雷, 黄一航. 川南经济区森林火险气象预报技术研究[J/OL]. 四川林业科技, 2024, 45[2024-05-20]. DOI: 10.12172/202308010003
引用本文: 林璐, 赵若雷, 黄一航. 川南经济区森林火险气象预报技术研究[J/OL]. 四川林业科技, 2024, 45[2024-05-20]. DOI: 10.12172/202308010003
LIN L, ZHAO R L, HUANG Y H. Research on Meteorological Forecasting Technology for Forest Fire Danger in South Sichuan Economic Zone[J/OL]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2024, 45[2024-05-20]. DOI: 10.12172/202308010003
Citation: LIN L, ZHAO R L, HUANG Y H. Research on Meteorological Forecasting Technology for Forest Fire Danger in South Sichuan Economic Zone[J/OL]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2024, 45[2024-05-20]. DOI: 10.12172/202308010003

川南经济区森林火险气象预报技术研究

Research on Meteorological Forecasting Technology for Forest Fire Danger in South Sichuan Economic Zone

  • 摘要: 根据川南经济区(泸州市、内江市、宜宾市、自贡市)20个国家气象站1990-2022年逐日气象数据、1990-2022年森林火灾资料,通过计算林火分类条件概率,完善20个国家站12个气象要素单因子贡献度数学模型的参数调整,最终构建出适用于川南经济区的森林火险气象等级预报模型。经验证,模型计算得到的火灾发生时森林火险气象等级均在3级以上,表明森林火灾风险高,与川南经济区林火的出现较为吻合,适用于川南经济区森林火险气象等级实际预报中。

     

    Abstract: This article is based on daily meteorological data from 20 national meteorological stations in the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone (Luzhou City, Neijiang City, Yibin City, and Zigong City) from 1990 to 2022, as well as forest fire data from 1990 to 2022. By calculating the probability of forest fire classification conditions, the parameter adjustment of the single factor contribution mathematical model of 12 meteorological elements from 20 national stations is improved, and finally a forest fire risk meteorological grade prediction model suitable for the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone is constructed. After verification, the forest fire risk meteorological level calculated by the model is above level 3 when a fire occurs, indicating a high risk of forest fire, which is consistent with the occurrence of forest fires in the South Sichuan Economic Zone. It is suitable for the actual prediction of forest fire risk meteorological level in the South Sichuan Economic Zone.

     

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