Abstract:
Studying and clarifying the potential distribution of
Atrijuglans hetaohei in Qinba Mountain area is of great significance to formulate the early monitoring, warning and control measures of this insect. Based on the actual distribution points and bioclimatic data in the current scenario, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential distribution areas of
A. hetaohei in Qinba Mountain area. The ROC curve was used to detect the accuracy of the model and the knife cutting method was used to screen the dominant environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) The average AUC of MaxEnt model was 0.948, and the standard deviation was 0.008, indicating that the prediction effect reached a "good" level. (2) The wettest monthly precipitation, the mean temperature of the driest season, the minimum temperature of the coolest month, altitude, the precipitation of the coolest season, isotherm, the precipitation of the driest season and the mean temperature of the coolest season were the main environmental variables that dominated the potential distribution of
A. hetaohei. (3) The high suitable area of
A. hetaohei was mainly concentrated in the central Qinba Mountain area, and distributed in six provinces and cities, including Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Gansu and Chongqing, among which Gansu Province had the smallest area (0.13×10
4 km
2) and Shaanxi Province had the largest area (4.8×10
4 km
2).