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廖占东, 李锋, 姬红敏, 等. 秦巴山区核桃举肢蛾潜在分布预测[J]. 四川林业科技, 2023, 44(6): 83−87. DOI: 10.12172/202303290001
引用本文: 廖占东, 李锋, 姬红敏, 等. 秦巴山区核桃举肢蛾潜在分布预测[J]. 四川林业科技, 2023, 44(6): 83−87. DOI: 10.12172/202303290001
LIAO Z D, LI F, JI H M, et al. Prediction of potential distribution of Atrijuglans hetaohei in Qinba Mountain area[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 44(6): 83−87. DOI: 10.12172/202303290001
Citation: LIAO Z D, LI F, JI H M, et al. Prediction of potential distribution of Atrijuglans hetaohei in Qinba Mountain area[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 44(6): 83−87. DOI: 10.12172/202303290001

秦巴山区核桃举肢蛾潜在分布预测

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Atrijuglans hetaohei in Qinba Mountain Area

  • 摘要: 研究并明确核桃举肢蛾在秦巴山区的潜在分布,对制定该虫的早期监测、预警及控制措施意义重大。基于核桃举肢蛾实际分布点位和当前情景下生物学气候数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS对其在秦巴山区的潜在分布区进行预测,用ROC曲线检测模型准确性、刀切法筛选主导环境变量。研究结果表明:(1)MaxEnt生态位模型重复测试的AUC平均为0.948,标准偏差为0.008,预测效果达到“较好”水平。(2)最湿月降水量、最干季平均温度、最冷月最低温度、海拔、最冷季降水量、等温性、最干季降水量和最冷季平均温度是主导核桃举肢蛾潜在分布的主要环境变量。(3)核桃举肢蛾高适生区主要集中在秦巴山区的中部,河南、四川、湖北、陕西、甘肃和重庆6省市均有分布,其中甘肃省面积最小(0.13×104 km2),陕西省面积最大(4.8×104 km2)。

     

    Abstract: Studying and clarifying the potential distribution of Atrijuglans hetaohei in Qinba Mountain area is of great significance to formulate the early monitoring, warning and control measures of this insect. Based on the actual distribution points and bioclimatic data in the current scenario, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential distribution areas of A. hetaohei in Qinba Mountain area. The ROC curve was used to detect the accuracy of the model and the knife cutting method was used to screen the dominant environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) The average AUC of MaxEnt model was 0.948, and the standard deviation was 0.008, indicating that the prediction effect reached a "good" level. (2) The wettest monthly precipitation, the mean temperature of the driest season, the minimum temperature of the coolest month, altitude, the precipitation of the coolest season, isotherm, the precipitation of the driest season and the mean temperature of the coolest season were the main environmental variables that dominated the potential distribution of A. hetaohei. (3) The high suitable area of A. hetaohei was mainly concentrated in the central Qinba Mountain area, and distributed in six provinces and cities, including Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Shaanxi, Gansu and Chongqing, among which Gansu Province had the smallest area (0.13×104 km2) and Shaanxi Province had the largest area (4.8×104 km2).

     

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