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张硕, 李伟, 焦春雨, 等. 基于灰色理论的河南省林业产业结构分析预测[J]. 四川林业科技, 2023, 44(6): 77−82. DOI: 10.12172/202302140001
引用本文: 张硕, 李伟, 焦春雨, 等. 基于灰色理论的河南省林业产业结构分析预测[J]. 四川林业科技, 2023, 44(6): 77−82. DOI: 10.12172/202302140001
Zhang S, Li W, Jiao C Y, et al. Analysis and prediction of forestry industrial structure in Henan Province based on grey theory[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 44(6): 77−82. DOI: 10.12172/202302140001
Citation: Zhang S, Li W, Jiao C Y, et al. Analysis and prediction of forestry industrial structure in Henan Province based on grey theory[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 44(6): 77−82. DOI: 10.12172/202302140001

基于灰色理论的河南省林业产业结构分析预测

Analysis and Prediction of Forestry Industrial Structure in Henan Province Based on Grey Theory

  • 摘要: 以河南省2000—2018年林业统计年鉴数据为基础,采用矢量夹角模型对河南省林业产业结构的稳定性进行系统分析;运用灰色关联度分析方法分别计算河南省林业三大产业和总产值的关联度,进而分析其林业产业结构的动态变化规律;通过GM(1,1)模型预测和分析河南省林业三大产业产值及产值的未来变化趋势。结果表明:2000—2007年间河南省林业结构变动较大,2007—2018年间林业产业结构较稳定,而在2000—2018年期间林业第二产业产值与林业产业总产值关联度最高,第一产业次之,第三产业最低,并形成了“二一三”产业结构发展格局,但在未来十年内,随着第三产业的飞速发展,其产值将超过第一产业,进而形成“二三一”新的产业结构发展格局。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of Henan Forestry Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2018, the stability of Henan forestry industrial structure systematically analyzed by using the vector angle model. Using the grey correlation analysis method, the correlation degree between the three forestry industries and the total output value in Henan Province was calculated respectively, and then the dynamic change law of its forestry industrial structure was analyzed. Through the GM(1,1) model, the future change trend of output value and output value of the three major forestry industries in Henan Province was predicted and analyzed. The results showed that the forestry structure in Henan Province changed greatly from 2000 to 2007, and the forestry industrial structure was relatively stable from 2007 to 2018. During the period from 2000 to 2018, the correlation between the output value of the secondary industry and the total output value of the forestry industry was the highest, followed by the primary industry and the tertiary industry, and a "213" industrial structure development pattern was formed. But in the next decade, with the rapid development of the tertiary industry, its output value will exceed that of the primary industry, thus forming a new “231” industrial structure development pattern.

     

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