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王海燕, 王茹琳, 李锋, 等. 四川省野核桃生态适宜性及潜在分布[J]. 四川林业科技, 2023, 44(2): 143−148. DOI: 10.12172/202206070003
引用本文: 王海燕, 王茹琳, 李锋, 等. 四川省野核桃生态适宜性及潜在分布[J]. 四川林业科技, 2023, 44(2): 143−148. DOI: 10.12172/202206070003
WANG H Y, WANG R L, LI F, et al. Ecological climate suitability and potential distribution of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 44(2): 143−148. DOI: 10.12172/202206070003
Citation: WANG H Y, WANG R L, LI F, et al. Ecological climate suitability and potential distribution of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2023, 44(2): 143−148. DOI: 10.12172/202206070003

四川省野核桃生态适宜性及潜在分布

Ecological Climate Suitability and Potential Distribution of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan Province

  • 摘要: 为进一步探究气候变化对野核桃在四川潜在分布的影响,利用野核桃在中国的实际分布点位数据、当前和未来气候情景(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5)下生物气候变量,结合最大熵模型(MaxEnt),预测SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下2050 s和2090 s野核桃在四川的潜在适生范围。研究结果表明:(1)当前气候情景下,野核桃在四川的高适生面积为4.86×104 km2,中适生面积为13.35×104 km2;(2)SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下,2050 s和2090 s野核桃在四川的高适生面积分别为5.09×104 km2和8.58×104 km2,中适生面积分别为7.37×104 km2和7.02×104 km2;(3)SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下,到21世纪90年野核桃在四川的高质生区质心分别从当前位置向东南方向移动34.49 km和21.94 km。气候变暖会使野核桃在四川的适生范围扩大,但不是无限扩大。

     

    Abstract: In order to further explore the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan, base on the actual distribution points data of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in China, bioclimatic variables under climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and combined with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt model), the potential suitable area of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in the 2050s and 2090s was predicted under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario. The result showed that: (1) Under the current climate scenario, the high suitability area of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan was 4.86×104 km2, and the moderate suitability area was 13.35×104 km2; (2) Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, the high suitable areas were 5.09×104 km2 and 8.58×104 km2 respectively, and the moderate suitable areas were 7.37×104 km2 and 7.02×104 km2 respectively in the 2050s and 2090s. (3) Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, the barycenter of high suitability area will respectively move 34.49 km and 21.94 km from the current position by the 2090s. Climate warming will expand the suitable range of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan, but not infinitely.

     

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