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何清玉, 徐健雄, 杜忠, 等. 南充市近50年主要气候要素变化分析[J]. 四川林业科技, 2022, 43(4): 60−66. DOI: 10.12172/202204070002
引用本文: 何清玉, 徐健雄, 杜忠, 等. 南充市近50年主要气候要素变化分析[J]. 四川林业科技, 2022, 43(4): 60−66. DOI: 10.12172/202204070002
HE Q Y, XU J X, DU Z, et al. Analysis on main climate elements changes in Nanchong city in the past 50 years[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2022, 43(4): 60−66. DOI: 10.12172/202204070002
Citation: HE Q Y, XU J X, DU Z, et al. Analysis on main climate elements changes in Nanchong city in the past 50 years[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2022, 43(4): 60−66. DOI: 10.12172/202204070002

南充市近50年主要气候要素变化分析

Analysis on Main Climate Elements Changes in Nanchong City in the Past 50 Years

  • 摘要: 为了更好地利用南充市气候资源,预测南充市未来的气候变化趋势,促进区域内的生产生活。利用1970—2019年南充市地面气象观测数据,选取气温,降水,日照3个气候要素,通过使用线性回归和R/S分析法,分析南充市近50年来年际和四季的气候变化特征,预测南充市未来年际和四季的气候变化趋势。研究结果表明,1970—2019年间,年平均气温和四季平均气温总体呈上升趋势;年日照时数和夏、秋季日照时数总体呈下降趋势,而春季与冬季日照时数呈上升趋势;降水量除秋季呈下降趋势,其余均呈上升趋势。南充市未来的年平均气温和四季平均气温呈下降趋势;年日照时数和春、秋、冬季日照时数呈下降趋势,夏季日照时数呈上升趋势;年降水量和春、秋、冬季降水量呈下降趋势,夏季降水量呈上升趋势。

     

    Abstract: In order to make better use of the climate resources in Nanchong city, forecast the future climate change trend in Nanchong city, and promote the production and life in the region. Based on the ground meteorological observation data of Nanchong city from 1970—2019, three climate elements: temperature, precipitation and sunshine, were selected. By using the linear regression method and R/S analysis method, the characteristics of inter-annual and four-season climate change in Nanchong city over the past 50 years were analyzed, and the future inter-annual and four-season climate change trends in Nanchong city were predicted. The results showed that, from 1970—2019, the annual average temperature and the four-season average temperature showed an overall upward trend; the annual, summer and autumn sunshine hours showed an downward trend, and the spring and winter sunshine hours showed an upward trend; precipitation showed an downward trend in autumn, and the rest showed an upward trend. In the future, the annual average temperature and four-season average temperature in Nanchong city will show a downward trend; the sunshine hours in Nanchong city for the annual, spring, autumn and winter will show a downward trend, and the sunshine hours in summer will show an upward trend; the annual, spring, autumn and winter precipitation will show a downward trend, and the summer precipitation will show a upward trend.

     

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