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胡超, 于静. 基于MaxEnt和GIS预测四川省杉木良种在湖北省同一适宜引种生态区[J]. 四川林业科技, 2022, 43(3): 85−93. DOI: 10.12172/202108130002
引用本文: 胡超, 于静. 基于MaxEnt和GIS预测四川省杉木良种在湖北省同一适宜引种生态区[J]. 四川林业科技, 2022, 43(3): 85−93. DOI: 10.12172/202108130002
HU C, YU J. Prediction of the identical ecological distributions for planting the superior varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata in Hubei Province introduced from Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS analysis[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2022, 43(3): 85−93. DOI: 10.12172/202108130002
Citation: HU C, YU J. Prediction of the identical ecological distributions for planting the superior varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata in Hubei Province introduced from Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS analysis[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2022, 43(3): 85−93. DOI: 10.12172/202108130002

基于MaxEnt和GIS预测四川省杉木良种在湖北省同一适宜引种生态区

Prediction of the Identical Ecological Distributions for Planting the Superior Varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata in Hubei Province Introduced from Sichuan Province Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS Analysis

  • 摘要: 通过运用MaxEnt模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)软件进行建模,对四川省盆周山区杉木良种在湖北省同一适宜引种生态区进行预测,同时分析确定影响该杉木良种生长的主导气候因子。结果表明:MaxEnt模型对该杉木良种同一适宜引种生态区的预测精度高,模型预测的训练样本和测试样本AUC均值大于0.8。四川省盆周山区杉木产区的杉木良种在湖北省的低适生区面积为5204295 hm2,主要分布在:鄂中的随县、东宝区、掇刀区、沙洋县、荆州区、沙市区、江陵县、松滋市、公安县和石首市;鄂西的宜昌市、恩施市、襄阳市、十堰市和神农架。太阳辐射日均值和≥10℃积温是影响四川省盆周山区杉木良种适生区分布的主导气候因子。

     

    Abstract: The identical ecological distributions suitable for the planting in Hubei Province of the superior varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata introduced from the mountainous region surrounding Sichuan basin were predicted by using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, and the dominant climatic factors affecting the growth were analyzed and determined. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high prediction accuracy for the same ecological region suitable for introduction of the superior varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata, and the mean AUC of the training samples and tested samples predicted by the model was greater than 0.8. The suitable regions for this species covered an area of 5204295 hectares, mainly distributed in Suixian, Dongbao, Duodao, Shayang, Jingzhou, Shashi, Jiangling, Songzi, Gongan and Shishou in central Hubei as well as Yichang, Enshi, Xiangyang, Shiyan and Shenlongjia in western Hubei. Daily average solar radiation and accumulated temperature ≥10℃ were the dominant climatic factors that affected the distribution of suitable planting areas for the superior varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata introduced from the mountainous areas around the basin of Sichuan province.

     

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