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基于MaxEnt生态位模型的入侵害虫菊方翅网蝽在四川的适生区预测

Prediction of potential distribution of the invasive pest Corythucha marmorata in Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt niche model

  • 摘要: 基于2022年7月—2023年10月野外调查获取的255个菊方翅网蝽分布点位,利用MaxEnt模型,在1 km高分辨率尺度下首次对四川省菊方翅网蝽适生区开展精细化预测。结果显示:四川菊方翅网蝽的适生区集中分布于四川盆地底部及边缘(绵阳、资阳、内江等地),面积约42950.87 km2,占全省总面积的8.82%;中度适生区延伸至盆地周缘(广元、宜宾、泸州等地),面积约59378.79 km2,占全省总面积的12.20%;川西南山地、川西北高原及川东北山区为非适生区。等温性、降水季节性与年均温是调控其空间分布的核心因子,受海拔与山地地貌阻隔形成“盆地集聚、盆周过渡、高海拔全域不适”的分布格局,可为区域针对性监测管控提供空间依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on 255 occurrence records of Corythucha marmorata from field surveys conducted between July 2022 and October 2023, the first fine-scale prediction of its potential suitable habitats of this invasive pest across Sichuan at a 1 km resolution was conducted using the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the highly suitable habitats for C. marmorata were concentrated in central Sichuan Basin (including Mianyang, Ziyang and Neijiang), covering approximately 42950.87 km2, which accounted for 8.82% of Sichuan's total area. The moderately suitable areas spanned 59378.79 km2 (12.20% of the province), distributed around the basin fringe such as Guangyuan, Yibin and Luzhou, while southwestern mountains, northwestern plateau and northeastern mountainous regions were entirely unsuitable. Isothermality, precipitation seasonality and annual mean temperature were the key factors regulating its spatial distributon. Constrained by elevation and topographic barriers, the pest presented a refined spatial pattern of concentrated distribution inside the basin, transitional habitats around the basin margin and no suitable habitats in high-altitude zones. These findings supported targeted regional monitoring and precise pest management.

     

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