Abstract: This study focuses on the Qinling Mountains–Hanjiang River Valley composite region. Based on five sets of land use data from 1980 to 2020, it employs land use dynamics, transfer matrices, and the PLUS model to investigate the characteristics of land use change, the driving mechanisms, and the multi-scenario evolution trends for 2030 in this region. The results indicate: ① Over the 40-year period, land use in the study area exhibited a pattern of “continuous reduction in cropland and grassland, and steady expansion of forest land and construction land.” The year 2000 marked a critical turning point in land use change, with the comprehensive land use dynamism surging from 0.02% to 0.41%, signaling the onset of a rapid adjustment phase in regional land use. ② Land-use shifts exhibited a distinct directionality: the expansion of construction land was primarily characterized by unidirectional encroachment on cropland and was irreversible, while grassland played a critical ecological buffer role in the conversion between cropland and forest land. ③ The expansion of construction land was highly dependent on population agglomeration, transportation accessibility, and flat topography, whereas forest land restoration was primarily driven by elevation, hydrological and thermal conditions, and ecological compensation policies, with a synergistic effect between natural background conditions and socio-economic and policy interventions. ④ Under the ecological conservation scenario, forest land increases by 3.16% while construction land decreases by 0.17%, achieving spatial coordination between ecological conservation and urban development. Future territorial spatial management should adhere to the vertical differentiation principle of “intensive development at low altitudes and enhanced protection at high altitudes.” This involves promoting the intensive use of construction land in river valley plains, continuing ecological restoration projects in mid-to-high mountainous areas, and achieving regional sustainable development through spatial control measures under the ecological conservation scenario.