Abstract: Pedicularis species serve as key indicator taxa in grassland community succession. Investigating their suitable distribution and future changes provides a theoretical basis for early warning of grassland degradation and sustainable utilization of grassland resources in this region. Utilizing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, this study simulated and predicted the current and future (2041–2060, 2061–2080) potential suitable habitats for four Pedicularis species (P. cranolopha, P. kansuensis, P. longiflora, and P. verticillata) in Sichuan Province, China. This was based on species occurrence data combined with climatic, topographic, and soil environmental factors, under both SSP126 (low emission) and SSP585 (high emission) future climate scenarios. The results demonstrated high model prediction accuracy (all AUC values > 0.90). The mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2) was the primary shared dominant factor for all four species (contribution rate: 27.80–56.70%), though their optimal ranges exhibited interspecific differences: narrowest for P. verticillata (14.02–15.61℃) and widest for P. kansuensis (13.92–17.69℃). Under current climatic conditions, the high and medium suitability areas for all four species were primarily concentrated in the Ganzi and Aba Prefectures on the Western Sichuan Plateau (P. verticillata extended into Liangshan Prefecture), exhibiting an east-west differentiation pattern. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat areas for P. cranolopha, P. kansuensis, and P. verticillata showed a declining trend, while that of P. longiflora significantly increased (by 60,800 km²) during 2041–2060, indicating its relative competitive advantage among the sympatric Pedicularis species. Under the SSP585 scenario, changes in total suitable area varied among species: P. kansuensis and P. verticillata increased initially and then decreased; P. cranolopha and P. longiflora showed an overall decreasing trend but with a tendency to increase over time. Across both future scenarios, the suitable habitat for P. cranolopha became highly fragmented, indicating the highest degradation risk (up to 52.00%). In contrast, P. longiflora exhibited significant expansion under SSP126. P. kansuensis and P. verticillata remained relatively stable overall (retention rate > 82.28%) and demonstrated stronger potential for stress adaptation. Future expansion areas for all four species primarily migrated towards the northwest (Shiqu County) and southwest (Liangshan Prefecture). Consequently, we recommend enhanced dynamic monitoring in these hotspot regions to prevent potential disruption of grassland ecosystems due to biological invasion