Abstract: Land use change is an important factor affecting carbon stock, and predicting the impact of future land use change on carbon stock is of great significance for the sustainable development of the carbon sink function, which can provide support for the development of local land use policies. Based on the land use data of Shangluo City from 1980 to 2020, coupled with the PLUS-InVEST model, we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon stock from 1980—2020, and simulated the land use and its impact on carbon stock under the scenarios of natural development, urban development and ecological protection in 2030. The results show that: ① The main land use types in Shangluo City from 1980 to 2020 are grassland and forest land, both accounting for more than 76% of the total, of which the area of forest land continues to grow in general, and the area of construction land is due to the expansion caused by urbanization, and the area of watersheds shows an abnormal decline in 2010. During the 40-year period, a total of 1064.02 km² of land has been transferred, and forest land mainly comes from grassland and cropland, reflecting the effectiveness of the policy of returning farmland (grass) to forest. ② Carbon stock in Shangluo City from 1980 to 2020 showed a trend of increasing, decreasing and then increasing, with an overall increase of 10.91×10⁵ t. The spatial distribution of carbon stock was basically consistent, showing a distribution pattern of “high in the south, low in the north and concentrated in the hinterland”, and the areas of increasing carbon stock were the southwestern and eastern parts of Shangzhou District and the northwestern part of Zhen'an County. ③ Compared with 2020, in Shangluo City in 2030, under the natural development scenario, the areas of forest land, waters, construction land and unutilized land increase, among which the area of forest land increases the most, amounting to 190.66 km², while the area of cultivated land is lost more seriously; under the urban development scenario, the areas of all categories except grassland are on the increasing trend; and in the ecological protection scenario, the balance of cultivated land, grassland and forest land is reached. ④ Compared with 2020, the carbon stock in Shangluo City in 2030 under the natural development, urban development and ecological protection scenarios increased by 18.75×10⁵ t, 1.18×10⁵ t and 1.94×10⁵ t, respectively. under the natural development scenario, the growth of forested land relies on the degradation of cropland and grassland; under the urban development scenario, the total carbon stock is lower than that under the other scenarios; under the ecological protection scenario, due to the policy of Qinling ecological protection, the total carbon stock will be lower than that under the other scenarios., due to the implementation of the Qinling ecological protection policy and the establishment of ecological protection zones, the carbon stock of each category reaches a balanced state.