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基于Markov-FLUS的白水县土地利用变化多情景模拟预测

Multi-scenario simulation prediction of land use change in Baishui Countybased on Markov-FLUS model

  • 摘要: 白水县是黄土高原苹果重要产区,研究其土地利用格局变化对未来的城市发展建设具有重要意义。基于2000、2010和2020年的土地利用分类数据以及10种自然及人为驱动因子,运用Markov-FLUS模型,对白水县土地利用格局进行多情景模拟。研究结果表明:(1)Markov-FLUS总体精度达0.9313,Kappa系数达0.8734,适用于白水县的土地利用模拟。(2)三种情景下,白水县域内土地利用变化有着明显差异。自然发展情景中建筑用地扩张趋势最为显著,涨幅为23.19%;耕地保护情景中,耕地得到一定程度的保护,减少趋势由2.27%下降到1.16%;生态保护情景中,林地出现唯一的增长趋势,涨幅为3.32%,草地的下降趋势由0.36%降至0.24%。(3)未来区域内土地利用过程中,应根据发展目标调整土地利用结构,以实现土地利用的可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Baishui County is an important apple-producing area on the Loess Plateau, and the study of its land use pattern changes is of great significance for future urban development and construction. In this study, based on the land use classification data of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and 10 natural and anthropogenic driving factors, Markov-FLUS model was applied to simulate the land use pattern of Baishui County in multiple scenarios. The results show that (1) the overall accuracy of Markov-FLUS reaches 0.9313 and the Kappa coefficient reaches 0.8734, which is suitable for land use simulation in Baishui County. (2) There are obvious differences in land use changes in Baishui County under the three scenarios. The expansion trend of building land in the natural development scenario is the most significant, with an increase of 23.19%; in the cropland protection scenario, cropland is protected to a certain extent, with a decreasing trend from 2.27% to 1.16%; in the ecological protection scenario, forest land shows the only increasing trend, with an increase of 3.32%, and the decreasing trend of grassland decreases from 0.36% to 0.24%. (3) In the future , the land use structure should be adjusted according to the development objectives in order to realize the sustainable development of land use.

     

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