Abstract: Baishui County is an important apple-producing area on the Loess Plateau, and the study of its land use pattern changes is of great significance for future urban development and construction. In this study, based on the land use classification data of 2000, 2010 and 2020 and 10 natural and anthropogenic driving factors, Markov-FLUS model was applied to simulate the land use pattern of Baishui County in multiple scenarios. The results show that (1) the overall accuracy of Markov-FLUS reaches 0.9313 and the Kappa coefficient reaches 0.8734, which is suitable for land use simulation in Baishui County. (2) There are obvious differences in land use changes in Baishui County under the three scenarios. The expansion trend of building land in the natural development scenario is the most significant, with an increase of 23.19%; in the cropland protection scenario, cropland is protected to a certain extent, with a decreasing trend from 2.27% to 1.16%; in the ecological protection scenario, forest land shows the only increasing trend, with an increase of 3.32%, and the decreasing trend of grassland decreases from 0.36% to 0.24%. (3) In the future , the land use structure should be adjusted according to the development objectives in order to realize the sustainable development of land use.