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烟台市土地利用与碳储量的时空变化及预测

Study on the spatial and temporal changes and prediction analysis of land use and carbon storage in Yantai City

  • 摘要: 土地利用变化是碳储量的直接影响因素,碳储量的变化会直接影响到城市气候、社会经济以及生态系统的服务功能。因此合理的土地利用规划和管理对于维持和增加碳储量有着重要的战略意义。以烟台市为例,选取3期土地利用数据,利用GIS等软件分析土地利用变化特征,运用InVEST— FLUS耦合模型分析烟台市2035年的,自然演变和生态保护两种情景下的土地利用变化以及碳储量的分布规律。结果表明:2000~2020年间烟台市耕地、草地和其它用地持续减少,林地、水域和建设用地持续增加,碳储量持续减少,总体减少18.01×106 t,耕地是碳储量减少的主要用地类型。不同的情景模拟对比下,生态保护情景下的林地、草地得到增加,耕地、建设用地、其它用地减少,其它用地的利用程度降低。生态保护情景与自然演变情景下碳储量均有所减少,分别减少了10.06×106 t和11.37×106 t,两种情景下的碳储量发展区别不大。

     

    Abstract: Land use change is a direct factor affecting carbon storage, and the change of carbon storage will directly affect the urban climate, social economy and ecosystem service function. Therefore, reasonable land use planning and management has important strategic significance for maintaining and increasing carbon storage. Taking Yantai City as an example, three periods of land use data were selected, and GIS and other software were used to analyze the characteristics of land use change. The InVEST-FLUS coupling model was used to analyze the land use change and carbon storage distribution in Yantai City in 2035 under the two scenarios of natural evolution and ecological protection. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the cultivated land, grassland and other land in Yantai City continued to decrease, the forest land, water area and construction land continued to increase, and the carbon storage continued to decrease, with an overall decrease of 18.01×106 t. Cultivated land is the main land type with reduced carbon storage. Under different scenario simulation comparison, the forest land and grassland under the ecological protection scenario are increased, the cultivated land, construction land and other land are reduced, and the utilization degree of other land is reduced. The carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario and the natural evolution scenario decreased by 10.06×106 t and 11.37×106 t, respectively, and the development of carbon storage under the two scenarios was not much different.

     

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