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西昌森林火灾风险敏感度分层聚类研究

Study on Hierarchical Clustering of Forest Fire Risk Sensitivity in Xichang City

  • 摘要: 西昌森林火灾为风险敏感度聚类问题研究提供了重要案例。以前往西昌的外地游客为研究对象,通过问卷调查,揭示不同森林火灾风险敏感度聚类人群的火灾风险感知差异和火灾险情驱动下的不同旅游行为。结果表明:基于火灾风险敏感度,将游客划分为无畏型(n=73人)、谨慎型(n=133人)和理性型(n=43人)3个有效聚类,正确分组率>80%。不同聚类对泸山森林公园、火把节、彝族年火灾发生可能性感知存在显著差异,火灾风险感知强度为谨慎型>理性型>无畏型。火灾险情发生时,无畏型、谨慎型和理性型大多会选择推迟行程,尤以谨慎型做此选项的人数和比例最高,表明风险敏感度越高的游客,其旅游行为更趋于规避风险。研究结论有望为不同风险敏感度人群制定差异化和针对性的舆情应对策略提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The forest fire in Xichang in 2020 provides a good opportunity for the study of fire risk sensitivity clustering. In order to reveal the differences of fire risk perception among different forest fire risk sensitivity cluster groups and different tourism behaviors driven by fire danger, the foreign tourists travelling Xichang were selected as the research object, through the questionnaire survey. The results showed that, based on the fire risk sensitivity, the tourists were divided into three effective clusters: fearless (n = 73), cautious (n = 133) and rational (n = 43), and the correct grouping rate was over 80%. There were significant differences in the perceived threat of wildfires in Lushan Forest Park, Torch Festival, and Yi Nationality Year among different clusters, and the intensity of fire risk perception was cautious > rational > fearless. When a fire emergency occurred, most of the fearless, cautious and rational clusters would choose to postpone the trip, especially the cautious cluster with the highest number and proportion, which indicated that tourists with higher risk sensitivity tended to avoid risks. The conclusion of this paper was expected to provide reference for people with different risk sensitivity to formulate differentiated and targeted coping strategies.

     

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