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吴明, 李锋, 王茹琳, 等. 四川省野核桃生境适应性及适生区划研究[J]. 四川林业科技, 2022, 43(1): 82−86. DOI: 10.12172/202104150002
引用本文: 吴明, 李锋, 王茹琳, 等. 四川省野核桃生境适应性及适生区划研究[J]. 四川林业科技, 2022, 43(1): 82−86. DOI: 10.12172/202104150002
WU M, LI F, WANG R L, et al. Habitat suitability evaluation and regionalization of Juglans cathayensis Dode in Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt model[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2022, 43(1): 82−86. DOI: 10.12172/202104150002
Citation: WU M, LI F, WANG R L, et al. Habitat suitability evaluation and regionalization of Juglans cathayensis Dode in Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt model[J]. Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology, 2022, 43(1): 82−86. DOI: 10.12172/202104150002

四川省野核桃生境适应性及适生区划研究

Habitat Suitability Evaluation and Regionalization of Juglans cathayensis Dode in Sichuan Province Based on MaxEnt Model

  • 摘要: 为明晰野核桃在四川的生境适应性情况,利用MaxEnt模型,结合野核桃的分布点位信息及生物气候变量,预测野核桃在四川的适生区范围,分析主要生物气候变量对其分布的影响,并利用ROC(受试者工作特征曲线)曲线对预测模型的准确性进行评价。研究结果如下:(1)多次重复后训练集AUC的均值为0.990,表明模型预测效果较好。(2)刀切法和Person相关系数法筛选出影响野核桃潜在分布的最主要生物气候变量为年均温、最暖季降水量、最冷季均温和最干季均温,海拔对野核桃潜在分布的影响较小,300~3800 m均适宜野核桃生长。(3)利用MaxEnt模型计算出年均温适宜范围为9.68~18.88℃、日较差月均值为6.16~11.63℃、等温性为24.68~44.47、温度季节性标准差为313.04~933.33、最冷月最低温为−7.38~4.76 ℃、最湿季均温为16.52~25.35℃、最干季均温为−0.9~12.4℃、最冷季均温为−1.19~10.71℃、年降水量为654.55~5033.77 mm、最湿月降水量为116.94~948.49 mm、最湿季降水量为311.69~2158.44 mm、最暖季降水量大于358.44 mm。

     

    Abstract: In order to clarify the habitat suitability of Juglans cathayensis Dode in Sichuan province, the MaxEnt model was used to predict its potential distribution area by combining the distribution information and environmental variables. The effects of major environmental variables on the distribution were analyzed, and the accuracy of the prediction model was evaluated using ROC (receiver operating characteristic curve) curve. The results were as follows: (1) The average AUC of the training set was 0.990 after more repetitions, which indicated that the prediction effect of the model was good. (2) Based on the Jackkinfe method and the Person's correlation coefficient method, the most important environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of J.cathayensis Dode were annual mean temperature, preciptitation of warmest season, mean temperature of driest season and mean temperature of coldest season. Altitude had little effect on the potential distribution of wild walnut, and 300~3800m was suitable for the growth of wild walnut. (3) According to the MaxEnt model, the suitable range of average annual temperature was 9.68~18.88 ℃, and mean diurnal range Mean of monthly(max temp - min temp) is 6.16~11.63℃, and Isothermality (Mean diurnal range / Temperature annual range)×100 was 24.68~44.47, and temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) was 313.04~933.33. The lowest temperature of the coldest month was −7.38~4.76 ℃, and mean temperature of wettest season was 16.52~25.35 ℃, and mean temperature of driest season was −0.9~12.4 ℃, and average temperature of the coldest season was −1.19~10.71 ℃. The annual precipitation was 654.55~5033.77 mm, and the monthly precipitation in the wettest month was 116.94~948.49 mm. The precipitation in the wettest season was 311.69~2158.44 mm, and the precipitation in the warmest season was more than 358.44 mm.

     

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