Prediction of the potential distribution of Camellia sinensis var. assamica in Yunnan Province under climate change scenarios

Camellia sinensis is a crucial resource for the tea industry in Yunnan Province. Understanding changes in its potential suitable habitat is of great significance for industrial layout and sustainable development. This study, based on 96 occurrence points and bioclimatic variables, utilized the MaxEnt model to predict the potential suitable habitats for this variety in Yunnan under current conditions and future climate scenarios (2030s and 2070s, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that (1) The model's prediction accuracy, measured by the area under the curve (AUC), was 0.715. Key factors influencing its distribution include precipitation of the wettest month (BIO13, 48.3%), precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO17, 15.8%), temperature seasonality (BIO4, 11.6%), and slope (10.7%). (2) Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats show a pattern of "more in the south, less in the north," with highly suitable areas concentrated in Xishuangbanna, Pu'er, and Baoshan, covering approximately 4.72 ×10⁴ km², accounting for 12.3% of the total suitable area. (3) Under future climate change, suitable habitats generally exhibit a northward expansion trend, with significant increases in both highly suitable and moderately suitable areas. The centroid shifts northwest from the current Shuangbai County to Chuxiong City. (4) Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the expansion of highly suitable areas is particularly notable, and the northward shift of suitable habitats makes regions such as Baoshan, Chuxiong, and Dali potential cultivation zones. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing the cultivation layout and developing management strategies for this tea variety.