Prediction of the adult stages of Monochamus alternatus based on meterological fators

In a bid of scientifically scheming the tasks of controlling the intensity of M. alternatus popularity, the prediction models for four adult stages, those were the onset, the incipient peak, the peaking season and the last maximum, were originally figured out under the method of stepwise regression analysis with the logs originated from the trapped M. alternatus over the years of 2017-2022 and from the meteorological factors (average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average temperature, average precipitation and average relative air humanity) in each early-month, mid-month and late-month occured contemporarily in Chongzhou City, Sichuan Province, China. Then, the models were established after being checked out with the relative data in 2023. The experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model for four adult stages reached 96.4% within the permitted range of the tolerance deviations ±3 d, which had high accuracy.