Analysis on Potential Suitable Distribution of Endangered Medicinal Paeonia suffruticosa Species Under Climate Change Scenarios

Paeonia suffruticosa is a traditional medicinal herb, which has uniquely effects on relieving antispasmodic spasms and treating conditions such as stroke and abdominal pain. With the increasing demand for P. suffruticosa bark in China's medicinal market and the sharp decline of wild resources due to extreme climate, it is urgent to introduce and cultivate P. suffruticosa in suitable areas. Based on the distribution records of P. suffruticosa in China, combined with environmental factors, the potential distribution area of P. suffruticosa was simulated by MaxEnt model. The environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. suffruticosa were obtained by using the contribution rate of environmental factors and knife cutting method. The results showed that the AUC value of P. suffruticosa training set data was 0.979, indicating that the model was accurate and the simulation results were reliable. At present, the high suitable area of P. suffruticosa was mainly distributed in the eastern part of Sichuan province, with an area of 23.90 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 7.37% of the total suitable area. The most important environmental factor affecting the geographical distribution of P. suffruticosa was annual precipitation. Under the future climate change scenarios, the low suitable area of P. suffruticosa would increase significantly, and the high suitable area of P. suffruticosa would decrease significantly. The mass center of the high suitable area of P. suffruticosa would move to the northeast, and its migration range would be larger under the scenario of a higher CO₂ concentration emission. The results provide a theoretical basis for the rational and repeatable development and utilization of P. suffruticosa varieties, as well as large-scale introduction and cultivation.