Ecological Climate Suitability and Potential Distribution of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan Province

In order to further explore the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan, base on the actual distribution points data of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in China, bioclimatic variables under climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and combined with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt model), the potential suitable area of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in the 2050s and 2090s was predicted under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario. The result showed that: (1) Under the current climate scenario, the high suitability area of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan was 4.86×10⁴ km², and the moderate suitability area was 13.35×10⁴ km²; (2) Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, the high suitable areas were 5.09×10⁴ km² and 8.58×10⁴ km² respectively, and the moderate suitable areas were 7.37×10⁴ km² and 7.02×10⁴ km² respectively in the 2050s and 2090s. (3) Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenario, the barycenter of high suitability area will respectively move 34.49 km and 21.94 km from the current position by the 2090s. Climate warming will expand the suitable range of Juglans cathayensis Dode. in Sichuan, but not infinitely.